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When it comes to the value of OHI stock, either the stock market is stupid or I am.
I bet 9 out of 10 people reading this article own shares of OHI themselves.
I mean that literally, but I also mean it figuratively in terms of the many “too good to be true” investment opportunities that I’ve stepped in and then ultimately had to wipe off the bottom of my shoes as I hold my nose.
I've owned OHI for years - largely because I see demand for skilled nursing homes rising substantially in the future.
But now, thanks to the rising dividend and falling stock price, this investment opportunity today appears so good that I have become dubious.
Maybe I am jaded because in my sundry perambulations, I have found far, far, far more Peep Land fivers than legal tender hundred dollar bills.
I can only tell you about the lessons that the investment equivalents of Peep Land five dollar bills and magical, wondrous, money-spewing sewers have taught me. If it’s too good to be true, then probably it’s either not good, not true, or both. OHI leases real estate to skilled nursing care providers, offers north of a 9% yield, sports impressive dividend growth and a compelling macroeconomic story to back it up (that being, everyone is getting old and will end up in a nursing home).
Here's an example of what I mean: the USA is in the middle of an oil-producing renaissance thanks to fracking technology.
The Peep Land five dollar bill phenomenon caught on and then rapidly spread across Times Square like an unmentionable and itchy venereal disease. I ponder the rate of inflation that took a fake bill and turn it into a fake 0 bill over a 25 year period.
Soon, all of the other topless bars and burlesque clubs festooned Times Square with green paper fliers and advertisements featuring fake currency on one side of the paper, and tits, ass and prurient offers and propositions on the back. I ponder, why a place like Peep Land would even bother to take the time to place a single fake 0 bill in a boring place like Chevy Chase.
Fast forward about 25 years, and you will find me strolling home from work through the tony, manicured suburbs of Chevy Chase, Maryland. To my alarm, I suddenly spy a crumpled up one hundred dollar bill lying on the side of the road next to a sewer. Nope, too smart to fall for that old Peep Land trick. Did they really expect someone to pick it up and DRIVE all the way up to New York City to visit a seedy 24 hour adult video boutique?
I think to myself "whoever is in charge of their marketing should be fired".
New York City was a seedy, grubby den of salacious iniquity in the late 1980s and early 1990s.